Air carriers will raise their fares by 10% this year

Most air carriers raised fares $5 to $10 each way on some routes last week, and more increases are likely in the coming months, say those who track prices.

“This is the year of the big change in the airline industry; it’s the year prices are going to increase,” said Terry Trippler of Cheapseats.com. “The airlines cannot continue to bleed red ink, and they know it.”

By the end of the year, leisure travelers likely will be paying 10 percent more than at the same time last year, Trippler predicted. Business travelers, he said, likely will face a 5 percent increase.

Inexpensive fares are available, but finding them will take more work, said Tom Parsons, president of BestFares.com, a travel Web site.

“There are bargains and bargains, cheap airfares,” he said. “But the number of seats being offered at special rates is going to be extremely limited.”

Many travelers will find that some of the old strategies for finding good deals again will come into play, Parsons said.

“Remember in 2000, the airfares were much, much higher out of Chicago,” he said. “The airlines had us pegged, and we booked tickets 60, 90 days out because that was the only way we could qualify for a cheap deal. It’s getting back to that same era.”

Price hikes that stick are a reversal of a trend in recent years that saw airlines raise fares, then quickly retreat when competitors did not match the increase.

Intense price competition, particularly from discount carrier Southwest Airlines, has been one of the reasons few airlines have shown a profit in recent years. But that appears to be changing.

Southwest this month broke its self-imposed ceiling that limited its highest fare to $299. The carrier raised its top one-way ticket price by $10, to $309. Others in the industry followed by price increases on the routes where they compete with Southwest.

Southwest’s decision to raise fares is a “sign that the industry is seeing a return to pricing power,” Merrill Lynch analyst Michael Linenberg said in a research note.

Late last week, Delta Air Lines raised airfares $5 one way. Before the weekend was over, much of the industry had matched those increases. The price hikes appear to be sticking, according to analysts

While the industry “has thus far not been able to push through significant ticket price increases, we believe it may gain some momentum in pricing strength as demand continues to be strong,” said analyst Ray Neidl of Calyon Securities.

Airlines have struggled with high fuel prices, which have doubled in recent years. Financial problems have forced several carriers into bankruptcy. Northwest Airlines and Delta are operating under court protection. United Airlines emerged from bankruptcy last month.

Southwest, one of the few airlines to consistently show a profit, had been able to resist raising ticket prices because it has extensive fuel hedges, allowing the airline to lock in prices as a safeguard against increases.

Dallas-based Southwest has more than 70 percent of its fuel needs hedged at $36 a barrel for crude oil. Light, sweet crude fell $2.35, to $60.42 a barrel, in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange Monday.

While his company’s hedges are the envy of competitors, 30 percent of the company’s fuel needs are exposed to market fluctuations, Southwest Chief Executive Gary Kelly said recently.

Why do flight prices suddenly go up?

Fares can change because airlines purposefully raise or lower them. There is another reason why the lowest available fares fluctuate. Cause various fare categories are constantly becoming sold out or getting re-opened as other travelers buy or cancel seats.

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